Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State of United States of America would be visiting Myanmar on first and second December 2011, a first in last 50 years. This visit is creating lot of buzz in the international circle and China is observing this recent development in Myanmar with keen interest.
China has been the only friend Myanmar had for last many years. But recently, ruling military Junta n Yangon has opened up to the world. It has also warmed up to India and Vietnam, which are traditionally seen as rival to China and both countries have border dispute with China.
India has been warming up to Myanmar, specially since 2007, in order to contain insurgents of North East India who have many camps in Myanmar. There has been report of Army operation against such camps by Myanmar Army which are normally denied by both Myanmar and India.
Nobel Prize winner, Aung San Suu Kyi, has been released from house arrest and she would participate in political process. Myanamar has recently also allowed peaceful protest march, which is a surprise development.
So how does these developments in Myanmar affect North East India which shares many thousand kilometer of boarder with Myanmar ?
1. With Myanmar going democratic way, first causality would be insurgent groups in North East India. Almost all insurgents groups have camps in Myanmar.
2. China would be much worried about warming of relations between India and Myanmar. So China may start arming and active supporting rebel groups of North East India in order to keep India bogged down. This would be nightmarish scenario. With India hosting Tibetans in India, China may decide to start hosting North Eastern rebel in China.
3. Myanmar may provide economic opportunities for the land locked North Eastern states! Access to ASEAN countries trough Myanmar will really open up many opportunities. Bangkok will be closer than New Delhi.
So, we hope North East India will be affected many ways by the recent development in Myanmar. It would be really interesting to watch how China reacts vis-a-vis India after losing its control Myanmar.